The efficacy of technical analysis continues to be called into question over the internet. Some have proclaimed it irrelevant or a sham, but what is the reality? Is technical analysis dead, or is it more alive than ever?
Technical analysis is not dead or irrelevant as it is still a viable means of getting some direction on the possible movement of specific tradable assets. Most of the core principles are still active today and success with it typically hinges on the individual trader’s approach and discipline.
This article will take a closer look at why technical analysis remains relevant in trading today. We will discuss the core principles of the theory and how to make it work for yourself.
IMPORTANT SIDENOTE: I surveyed 1500+ traders to understand how social trading impacted their trading outcomes. The results shocked my belief system! Read my latest article: ‘Exploring Social Trading: Community, Profit, and Collaboration’ for my in-depth findings through the data collected from this survey!
Table of Contents
Is Technical Analysis Still Relevant Today?
You can condense the main principles of technical analysis into the following two points:
- Markets are not random, as there are many identifiable trends and patterns that repeat from time to time.
- Everything you need to know about any tradable asset is largely priced in and displayed on the price chart.
These main principles of technical analysis are still applicable, even in the current market environment.
Pull up the chart for any tradable asset and plot two exponential moving averages of different period values (5 and 10 is a popular combination) to use the EMA crossover technical analysis strategy. You’ll find that the market still goes up or down today just after a cross has been completed—just as it was in the 1980s (or any other period you’d like to look at).
The EMA crossover is just one example of how technical analysts have unearthed repetitive patterns that continue to predict potential opportunities today. Granted, traders don’t typically follow the crosses blindly, but most past users of this strategy never did either. So, if these patterns are still as effective today as they were many decades ago, technical analysis must still be relevant.
Additionally, the chart of any tradable instrument today often distills all the information about the asset into one window. Here, you can take a glance and see what’s happening or what has happened.
Using a Bitcoin BTC/USD chart as an example, you don’t need to read thousands of news items to know that the cryptocurrency is on a bull run. You can see the information immediately on a technical chart.
When the price hits a so-called psychological level and starts to dip, some technical indicators can also highlight this fact quickly. This should be enough for you to either sell high or to start scouting for a good spot to buy in the dip. You don’t need to start analyzing tons of data and monitoring obscure wallets as a pointer to what will happen to the price of Bitcoin.
How About Emotion-Driven Market Movements?
Cases of pump and dump schemes (especially in the cryptocurrency market and the widely publicized Reddit short squeeze) are examples of how emotions can drive markets. Some conventional technical analysis approaches (like those based on finding overbought and oversold assets) can suffer in those markets.
However, these moves are often short-term and they don’t lead to long-term shifts. Still, some technical analysts can also make money in these markets with the right strategy. Massive bull or bear runs don’t always start out of the blue. There are often pointers on the chart that can put some technical analysts in a position to benefit from the move.
Even when you don’t have a system for navigating such markets, sticking to your technical analysis strategy can protect you from short-term volatility, keeping your account safe from deep drawdowns until normal market conditions return.
How To Make Technical Analysis Work for You Today?
There are three ways to make technical analysis work for you today:
- Create a strategy that has been backtested and proven successful in the past.
- Work with the strategy to the letter, rather than moving between trades based on emotion.
- Stick to it – even if it brings you losses.
Create a Robust Strategy
Technical analysis is a broad term that covers all kinds of strategies that help traders to make better trading decisions. The strategies typically show when to take a position in the market and when to exit. However, the best ones also cover a lot more than that. They also include:
- How much risk you have to take per trade.
- The number of open positions you can have at any point in time.
- The assets you can trade.
- The timeframes to use for your analysis.
Before you can say that you’ve settled on a strategy, you need to run a backtest using the rules to see how the strategy has held up over the years in previous market conditions. When the results come in, you can analyze the data to ensure it is worth risking your money on.
Some traders often compare the results generated in a backtest to the returns posted by a buy and hold portfolio made up of the S&P 500. The results are 56% maximum drawdown, with a 10% average return per year. If your backtest posts numbers that are significantly better, it is worth exploring further.
Stay Disciplined
When you’ve found a strategy that doesn’t have bad drawdowns and can also post reasonable returns, it’s time for you to document your strategy and start trading. For the strategy to work for you, however, you need to stick to the rules completely. Allowing subjectivity and gut feeling in trading is a sure path to poor trading results overall.
If you don’t trust your ability to stay disciplined and follow the rules of your strategy to the letter, you should consider converting your strategy to an expert advisor (EA) that can execute trades on your behalf. Still, even with this approach, you need to allow the EA to work. Turning it off and on whenever you feel like it can leave you with mediocre results.
Accept Losing Periods When They Come
When you’ve done everything right and secured a strategy, the next step is to relax and allow the market and probability to play out. You will have losing months and maybe losing years, but you should always keep your eyes on the big picture. Before you throw out a strategy and say it no longer works, you should make sure it has shown results that are far worse than your historical backtests.
For example, a strategy that returns 20% ROI per year on average that suddenly has two losing years of -20% in a row may need reviewing. You can chalk up anything else to unfavorable market conditions. Over, say, ten years, a strategy that returns 20% per year will beat most savings accounts and conventional pension funds even with a couple of losing years in there.
Don’t start tweaking the strategy or throwing on more indicators with every losing trade. It’s easy to give up on a strategy when volatility goes to extremes. However, this is a poor approach to trading. When market conditions are more tumultuous than usual, stick to your strategy and ride it out. You have a higher chance of success with this approach over the long term.
Author’s Recommendations: Top Trading and Investment Resources To Consider
Before concluding this article, I wanted to share few trading and investment resources that I have vetted, with the help of 50+ consistently profitable traders, for you. I am confident that you will greatly benefit in your trading journey by considering one or more of these resources.
- Roadmap to Becoming a Consistently Profitable Trader: I surveyed 5000+ traders (and interviewed 50+ profitable traders) to create the best possible step by step trading guide for you. Read my article: ‘7 Proven Steps To Profitable Trading’ to learn about my findings from surveying 5000+ traders, and to learn how these learnings can be leveraged to your advantage.
- Best Broker For Trading Success: I reviewed 15+ brokers and discussed my findings with 50+ consistently profitable traders. Post all that assessment, the best all round broker that our collective minds picked was M1 Finance. If you are looking to open a brokerage account, choose M1 Finance. You just cannot go wrong with it! Click Here To Sign Up for M1 Finance Today!
- Best Trading Courses You Can Take For Free (or at extremely low cost): I reviewed 30+ trading courses to recommend you the best resource, and found Trading Strategies in Emerging Markets Specialization on Coursera to beat every other course on the market. Plus, if you complete this course within 7 days, it will cost you nothing and will be absolutely free! Click Here To Sign Up Today! (If you don’t find this course valuable, you can cancel anytime within the 7 days trial period and pay nothing.)
- Best Passive Investment Platform For Exponential (Potentially) Returns: By enabling passive investments into a Bitcoin ETF, Acorns gives you the best opportunity to make exponential returns on your passive investments. Plus, Acorns is currently offering a $15 bonus for simply singing up to their platform – so that is one opportunity you don’t want to miss! (assuming you are interested in this platform). Click Here To Get $15 Bonus By Signing Up For Acorns Today! (It will take you less than 5 mins to sign up, and it is totally worth it.)
Conclusion
Technical analysis is not dead. It is still very much relevant today, as the main principles have remained largely unchanged over the decades. The arguments against the effectiveness of technical analysis on today’s markets are largely unfounded in most cases. The few points that have some merit can also be used against other forms of analysis.
If you’re thinking about using technical analysis in your trading, focus on securing a robust trading strategy you can trust to deliver consistent results while avoiding oversized drawdowns.
BEFORE YOU GO: Don’t forget to check out my latest article – ‘Exploring Social Trading: Community, Profit, and Collaboration’. I surveyed 1500+ traders to identify the impact social trading can have on your trading performance, and shared all my findings in this article. No matter where you are in your trading journey today, I am confident that you will find this article helpful!
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